Mexico
66.1
FIFA World Cup
VS
2026
Ecuador
51.0
AI Summary
Plain language prediction
Most Likely Outcome
Mexico Win
41.7% probability
0.0 – 0.0
Most Probable Score · 32.3% chance
0.0–0.0 32.3%
1.0–0.0 21.7%
0.0–1.0 12.7%
1.0–1.0 10.9%
2.0–0.0 8.2%
Top 5 scorelines by Poisson probability · (Mexico – Ecuador)
Shots on Target
7.3
Mexico: 4.2
Ecuador: 3.1
Corners
8.0
Mexico: 4.5
Ecuador: 3.5
Both Teams Score
NO
33.0% chance
Over 2.5 Goals
NO
30.8% chance
Team DNA & Playing Style
Based on 17.0 + 8.0 real matches
Mexico
POSSESSION
Possession
84.2/100
Aggression
66.9/100
Pressing
0.0/100
Defensive
0.0/100
Avg per game (real data)
55.8%
Poss
12.8
Shots
5.1
SOT
4.9
Corners
Ecuador
POSSESSION
Possession
84.8/100
Aggression
69.5/100
Pressing
0.0/100
Defensive
0.0/100
Avg per game (real data)
56.2%
Poss
13.2
Shots
4.6
SOT
5.6
Corners
Matchup Pattern: POSSESSION vs POSSESSION
Goals
low
Corners
medium
Cards
low
BTTS
50/50
Detailed Stats
Win probabilities, all markets
Win Probability
41.7%
Mexico Win
40.3%
Draw
18.0%
Ecuador Win
Goals O/U
O 1.5
33.3%
O 2.5 ★
30.8%
O 3.5
3.1%
SOT O/U
Mexico
4.2
Ecuador
3.1
O 8.5
31.0%
O 9.5
20.1%
Corners O/U
Mexico
4.5
Ecuador
3.5
O 9.5
28.8%
O 10.5
18.8%
BTTS + xG
BTTS
33.0% — NO
xG Mexico
0.7
xG Ecuador
0.4
Mexico — W/D/L
0.0%
Win
40.3%
Tie
59.7%
Lose
Ecuador — W/D/L
0.0%
Win
40.3%
Tie
59.7%
Lose
AI Match Verdict
Mexico Win
41.7% probability
Player Probabilities — Anytime Scorer & Assist
Win Probabilities
Mexico
41.7%
Draw
40.3%
Ecuador
18.0%
AI Verdict
Mexico Win
41.7% probability
xG Mexico
0.7
Score
0.0 – 0.0
xG Ecuador
0.4
Your Predicted Score
Mexico
–
Ecuador
Fill in your full betting slip below, then submit once.
Your Betting Slip — Every Market
Pick a side on every market, see the AI's own lean next to each, submit once — compared against the real result on /history once this match concludes.
AI:
30.8% Over
AI:
33.0% Yes
AI:
28.8% Over
AI:
31.0% Over
AI:
38.7% Over
AI:
65.6% Over
Goals Over / Under
| Over 1.5 | 33.3% | Under 1.5 | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 ★ | 30.8% | Under 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.1% | Under 3.5 | 96.9% |
| BTTS | 33.0% — NO | ||
Second Opinion — Claude Fable 5
Sends this matchup's full data bundle (win/draw/loss, xG, ELO, H2H, rosters, injuries, styles, form) to Claude Fable 5 for an independent read — not the same model as the "AI Verdict" above. Slow (can take a couple of minutes) and cached per matchup, so this only runs once per pair of teams.
Shots on Target
4.2
Mexico
3.1
Ecuador
Total Expected
~7.3
Over 8.5
7%
Corners
4.5
Mexico
3.5
Ecuador
Total ~8.0
Over 9.5
28.8%
Over 10.5
18.8%
Yellow Cards
1.7
Mexico
1.5
Ecuador
Total ~3.1
Over 3.5
38.7%
Over 4.5
21.1%
Team Comparison — Qualifying Stats
58.3%
Possession
56.8%
0.0%
Win Rate
0.0%
63.5
Attack Score
34.8
96.6
Defence Score
98.9
0.0%
GK Save Rate
0.0%
4.2
Shots on Target
3.1
8.0
Interceptions
9.5
0.0
Clean Sheets/Seas
0.0
0.0
Goals For
0.0
0.0
Goals Against
0.0
0.0×
Form Trend
0.0×
Mexico
← Home / Away →
Ecuador