66.7%

Poisson

Statistical model

54.4%

XGBoost

Machine learning

64.9%

Combined

Poisson + XGBoost

48.3%

Baseline

Always predict home

Accuracy Comparison

Test Set Info

Test matches 57 matches

Test period Jun 18 – Jul 2, 2026

Training matches 312 matches

Historical data 1,476 matches (2021–2026)

Industry benchmark 55–65%

Best model Combined @ 64.9% ✓

Match-by-Match Results Click any row for full stats 57 matches

	Date	Match	Actual	Poisson	XGBoost	Combined	Win %	xG	O/U 2.5	BTTS
	2026-06-19	Scotland vs Morocco	Away	Away	Draw	Away	30.0% / 27.0% / 43.0%	1.09 – 1.36	U 55.7%	NO 50.7%
Win Probability Scotland 30.0% Draw 27.0% Morocco 43.0% Goals Prediction 1.09 xG Scotland – 1.36 xG Morocco Over 1.5 70.2% Over 2.5 44.3% Over 3.5 23.2% Both Teams Score 49.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Scotland ~4.1 SOT Morocco ~5.2 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Scotland Scott McTominay (12G) 🌟 Morocco Ayoub El Kaabi (15G)
	2026-06-19	United States vs Australia	Home	Home	Home	Home	54.1% / 22.3% / 23.6%	1.9 – 1.19	O 59.7%	YES 59.2%
Win Probability United States 54.1% Draw 22.3% Australia 23.6% Goals Prediction 1.9 xG United States – 1.19 xG Australia Over 1.5 81.4% Over 2.5 59.7% Over 3.5 37.3% Both Teams Score 59.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT United States ~5.2 SOT Australia ~3.2 Corners O/U 9.5 49.0% Corners O/U 10.5 36.6% 🌟 United States Haji Wright (17G) 🌟 Australia Mohamed Toure (9G)
	2026-06-19	Brazil vs Haiti	Home	Home	Home	Home	64.3% / 21.3% / 14.4%	1.92 – 0.78	O 50.6%	NO 53.8%
Win Probability Brazil 64.3% Draw 21.3% Haiti 14.4% Goals Prediction 1.92 xG Brazil – 0.78 xG Haiti Over 1.5 75.1% Over 2.5 50.6% Over 3.5 28.6% Both Teams Score 46.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Brazil ~7.5 SOT Haiti ~2.3 Corners O/U 9.5 42.5% Corners O/U 10.5 30.5% 🌟 Brazil Igor Thiago (22G) 🌟 Haiti Wilson Isidor (13G)
	2026-06-20	Germany vs Ivory Coast	Home	Home	Home	Home	41.0% / 25.0% / 34.0%	1.49 – 1.34	O 53.8%	YES 57.2%
Win Probability Germany 41.0% Draw 25.0% Ivory Coast 34.0% Goals Prediction 1.49 xG Germany – 1.34 xG Ivory Coast Over 1.5 77.4% Over 2.5 53.8% Over 3.5 31.5% Both Teams Score 57.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Germany ~7.2 SOT Ivory Coast ~4.2 Corners O/U 9.5 43.8% Corners O/U 10.5 31.7% 🌟 Germany Deniz Undav (19G) 🌟 Ivory Coast Yan Diomande (12G)
	2026-06-20	Netherlands vs Sweden	Home	Home	Home	Home	42.9% / 26.4% / 30.7%	1.41 – 1.15	U 52.9%	YES 51.7%
Win Probability Netherlands 42.9% Draw 26.4% Sweden 30.7% Goals Prediction 1.41 xG Netherlands – 1.15 xG Sweden Over 1.5 72.5% Over 2.5 47.1% Over 3.5 25.5% Both Teams Score 51.7% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Netherlands ~3.8 SOT Sweden ~5.0 Corners O/U 9.5 39.9% Corners O/U 10.5 28.2% 🌟 Netherlands Guus Til (14G) 🌟 Sweden Benjamin Nygren (16G)
	2026-06-20	Türkiye vs Paraguay	Away	Home	Home	Home	43.7% / 24.2% / 32.2%	1.62 – 1.36	O 57.2%	YES 59.6%
Win Probability Türkiye 43.7% Draw 24.2% Paraguay 32.2% Goals Prediction 1.62 xG Türkiye – 1.36 xG Paraguay Over 1.5 79.8% Over 2.5 57.2% Over 3.5 34.8% Both Teams Score 59.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Türkiye ~5.4 SOT Paraguay ~3.3 Corners O/U 9.5 47.7% Corners O/U 10.5 35.4% 🌟 Türkiye Hakan Çalhanoglu (13G) 🌟 Paraguay Alex Arce (26G)
	2026-06-20	Ecuador vs Curaçao	Draw	Home	Home	Home	34.6% / 34.4% / 31.0%	0.87 – 0.8	U 76.5%	NO 68.0%
Win Probability Ecuador 34.6% Draw 34.4% Curaçao 31.0% Goals Prediction 0.87 xG Ecuador – 0.8 xG Curaçao Over 1.5 49.7% Over 2.5 23.5% Over 3.5 8.9% Both Teams Score 32.0% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Ecuador ~4.2 SOT Curaçao ~2.7 Corners O/U 9.5 27.1% Corners O/U 10.5 17.4% 🌟 Ecuador Jordy Caicedo (8G) 🌟 Curaçao Juninho Bacuna (5G)
	2026-06-21	Tunisia vs Japan	Away	Away	Draw	Away	25.0% / 26.3% / 48.8%	0.98 – 1.48	U 55.4%	NO 51.8%
Win Probability Tunisia 25.0% Draw 26.3% Japan 48.8% Goals Prediction 0.98 xG Tunisia – 1.48 xG Japan Over 1.5 70.4% Over 2.5 44.6% Over 3.5 23.4% Both Teams Score 48.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Tunisia ~3.0 SOT Japan ~5.3 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Tunisia Mortadha Ben Ouanes (7G) 🌟 Japan Ayase Ueda (25G)
	2026-06-21	Belgium vs Iran	Draw	Home	Home	Home	52.3% / 25.9% / 21.8%	1.52 – 0.88	U 57.0%	NO 54.3%
Win Probability Belgium 52.3% Draw 25.9% Iran 21.8% Goals Prediction 1.52 xG Belgium – 0.88 xG Iran Over 1.5 69.2% Over 2.5 43.0% Over 3.5 22.1% Both Teams Score 45.7% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Belgium ~6.0 SOT Iran ~2.5 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Belgium Romelu Lukaku (14G) 🌟 Iran Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh (8G)
	2026-06-21	Spain vs Saudi Arabia	Home	Home	Home	Home	48.3% / 23.5% / 28.3%	1.75 – 1.29	O 58.6%	YES 59.9%
Win Probability Spain 48.3% Draw 23.5% Saudi Arabia 28.3% Goals Prediction 1.75 xG Spain – 1.29 xG Saudi Arabia Over 1.5 80.7% Over 2.5 58.6% Over 3.5 36.2% Both Teams Score 59.9% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Spain ~5.8 SOT Saudi Arabia ~2.3 Corners O/U 9.5 47.7% Corners O/U 10.5 35.4% 🌟 Spain Ferran Torres (16G) 🌟 Saudi Arabia Feras Al-Brikan (13G)
	2026-06-21	Uruguay vs Cape Verde	Draw	Home	Home	Home	44.2% / 28.9% / 26.9%	1.25 – 0.91	U 63.3%	NO 57.4%
Win Probability Uruguay 44.2% Draw 28.9% Cape Verde 26.9% Goals Prediction 1.25 xG Uruguay – 0.91 xG Cape Verde Over 1.5 63.6% Over 2.5 36.7% Over 3.5 17.3% Both Teams Score 42.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Uruguay ~3.0 SOT Cape Verde ~2.0 Corners O/U 9.5 33.4% Corners O/U 10.5 22.6% 🌟 Uruguay Giorgian de Arrascaeta (18G) 🌟 Cape Verde Jovane Cabral (7G)
	2026-06-21	New Zealand vs Egypt	Away	Home	Draw	Home	45.3% / 28.7% / 25.9%	1.27 – 0.89	U 63.3%	NO 57.6%
Win Probability New Zealand 45.3% Draw 28.7% Egypt 25.9% Goals Prediction 1.27 xG New Zealand – 0.89 xG Egypt Over 1.5 63.6% Over 2.5 36.7% Over 3.5 17.3% Both Teams Score 42.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT New Zealand ~3.3 SOT Egypt ~4.0 Corners O/U 9.5 34.7% Corners O/U 10.5 23.6% 🌟 New Zealand Chris Wood (20G) 🌟 Egypt Mohamed Salah (29G)
	2026-06-22	France vs Iraq	Home	Home	Home	Home	58.5% / 24.1% / 17.4%	1.67 – 0.79	U 55.4%	NO 55.7%
Win Probability France 58.5% Draw 24.1% Iraq 17.4% Goals Prediction 1.67 xG France – 0.79 xG Iraq Over 1.5 70.4% Over 2.5 44.6% Over 3.5 23.4% Both Teams Score 44.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT France ~4.3 SOT Iraq ~0.7 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 France Kylian Mbappé (31G) 🌟 Iraq Ibrahim Bayesh (5G)
	2026-06-22	Argentina vs Austria	Home	Home	Home	Home	60.9% / 22.0% / 17.1%	1.89 – 0.89	O 52.6%	NO 50.0%
Win Probability Argentina 60.9% Draw 22.0% Austria 17.1% Goals Prediction 1.89 xG Argentina – 0.89 xG Austria Over 1.5 76.5% Over 2.5 52.6% Over 3.5 30.4% Both Teams Score 50.0% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Argentina ~6.0 SOT Austria ~4.9 Corners O/U 9.5 43.8% Corners O/U 10.5 31.7% 🌟 Argentina Lionel Messi (29G) 🌟 Austria Michael Gregoritsch (9G)
	2026-06-22	Jordan vs Algeria	Away	Away	Home	Away	19.5% / 28.4% / 52.1%	0.7 – 1.34	U 66.6%	NO 62.8%
Win Probability Jordan 19.5% Draw 28.4% Algeria 52.1% Goals Prediction 0.7 xG Jordan – 1.34 xG Algeria Over 1.5 60.5% Over 2.5 33.4% Over 3.5 15.0% Both Teams Score 37.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Jordan ~1.5 SOT Algeria ~4.1 Corners O/U 9.5 32.1% Corners O/U 10.5 21.5% 🌟 Jordan Mousa Al-Tamari (6G) 🌟 Algeria Houssem Aouar (12G)
	2026-06-22	Norway vs Senegal	Home	Home	Home	Home	45.6% / 23.7% / 30.8%	1.7 – 1.36	O 59.0%	YES 60.8%
Win Probability Norway 45.6% Draw 23.7% Senegal 30.8% Goals Prediction 1.7 xG Norway – 1.36 xG Senegal Over 1.5 81.0% Over 2.5 59.0% Over 3.5 36.6% Both Teams Score 60.8% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Norway ~3.0 SOT Senegal ~6.2 Corners O/U 9.5 49.0% Corners O/U 10.5 36.6% 🌟 Norway Erling Haaland (36G) 🌟 Senegal Nicolas Jackson (14G)
	2026-06-23	England vs Ghana	Draw	Home	Home	Home	56.2% / 21.5% / 22.4%	2.01 – 1.2	O 62.2%	YES 60.5%
Win Probability England 56.2% Draw 21.5% Ghana 22.4% Goals Prediction 2.01 xG England – 1.2 xG Ghana Over 1.5 83.0% Over 2.5 62.2% Over 3.5 40.0% Both Teams Score 60.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT England ~4.2 SOT Ghana ~2.5 Corners O/U 9.5 51.6% Corners O/U 10.5 39.1% 🌟 England Harry Kane (36G) 🌟 Ghana Brandon Thomas-Asante (13G)
	2026-06-23	Portugal vs Uzbekistan	Home	Home	Home	Home	72.9% / 17.3% / 9.8%	2.25 – 0.69	O 56.3%	NO 55.4%
Win Probability Portugal 72.9% Draw 17.3% Uzbekistan 9.8% Goals Prediction 2.25 xG Portugal – 0.69 xG Uzbekistan Over 1.5 79.2% Over 2.5 56.3% Over 3.5 33.9% Both Teams Score 44.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Portugal ~5.2 SOT Uzbekistan ~3.2 Corners O/U 9.5 46.4% Corners O/U 10.5 34.2% 🌟 Portugal Cristiano Ronaldo (35G) 🌟 Uzbekistan Eldor Shomurodov (4G)
	2026-06-23	Panama vs Croatia	Away	Away	Away	Away	16.6% / 19.7% / 63.7%	1.02 – 2.17	O 61.8%	YES 56.6%
Win Probability Panama 16.6% Draw 19.7% Croatia 63.7% Goals Prediction 1.02 xG Panama – 2.17 xG Croatia Over 1.5 82.7% Over 2.5 61.8% Over 3.5 39.5% Both Teams Score 56.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Panama ~3.8 SOT Croatia ~4.6 Corners O/U 9.5 50.3% Corners O/U 10.5 37.8% 🌟 Panama Ismael Díaz (5G) 🌟 Croatia Ante Budimir (21G)
	2026-06-23	Colombia vs Congo DR	Home	Home	Home	Home	44.6% / 27.1% / 28.3%	1.38 – 1.04	U 56.4%	NO 51.6%
Win Probability Colombia 44.6% Draw 27.1% Congo DR 28.3% Goals Prediction 1.38 xG Colombia – 1.04 xG Congo DR Over 1.5 69.6% Over 2.5 43.6% Over 3.5 22.5% Both Teams Score 48.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Colombia ~5.2 SOT Congo DR ~3.7 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Colombia Luis Suárez (28G) 🌟 Congo DR Simon Banza (21G)
	2026-06-24	Czechia vs Mexico	Away	Away	Away	Away	27.1% / 21.2% / 51.7%	1.47 – 2.08	O 68.8%	YES 67.4%
Win Probability Czechia 27.1% Draw 21.2% Mexico 51.7% Goals Prediction 1.47 xG Czechia – 2.08 xG Mexico Over 1.5 86.9% Over 2.5 68.8% Over 3.5 47.4% Both Teams Score 67.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Czechia ~4.0 SOT Mexico ~5.3 Corners O/U 9.5 55.3% Corners O/U 10.5 42.8% 🌟 Czechia Patrik Schick (24G) 🌟 Mexico Julián Quiñones (33G)
	2026-06-24	Scotland vs Brazil	Away	Away	Away	Away	24.1% / 23.6% / 52.3%	1.11 – 1.75	O 54.5%	YES 55.4%
Win Probability Scotland 24.1% Draw 23.6% Brazil 52.3% Goals Prediction 1.11 xG Scotland – 1.75 xG Brazil Over 1.5 77.9% Over 2.5 54.5% Over 3.5 32.1% Both Teams Score 55.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Scotland ~4.1 SOT Brazil ~7.5 Corners O/U 9.5 45.1% Corners O/U 10.5 32.9% 🌟 Scotland Scott McTominay (12G) 🌟 Brazil Igor Thiago (22G)
	2026-06-24	South Africa vs South Korea	Home	Home	Draw	Draw	28.4% / 44.4% / 27.1%	1.31 – 1.27	U 52.3%	YES 52.5%
Win Probability South Africa 28.4% Draw 44.4% South Korea 27.1% Goals Prediction 1.31 xG South Africa – 1.27 xG South Korea Over 1.5 72.9% Over 2.5 47.7% Over 3.5 26.0% Both Teams Score 52.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT South Africa ~5.0 SOT South Korea ~5.5 Corners O/U 9.5 41.2% Corners O/U 10.5 29.4% 🌟 South Africa Iqraam Rayners (14G) 🌟 South Korea Cho Gue-Sung (12G)
	2026-06-24	Switzerland vs Canada	Home	Away	Home	Away	30.0% / 28.9% / 41.1%	0.99 – 1.21	U 62.3%	NO 55.9%
Win Probability Switzerland 30.0% Draw 28.9% Canada 41.1% Goals Prediction 0.99 xG Switzerland – 1.21 xG Canada Over 1.5 64.5% Over 2.5 37.7% Over 3.5 18.1% Both Teams Score 44.1% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Switzerland ~4.2 SOT Canada ~4.6 Corners O/U 9.5 34.7% Corners O/U 10.5 23.6% 🌟 Switzerland Christian Fassnacht (11G) 🌟 Canada Promise David (11G)
	2026-06-24	Morocco vs Haiti	Home	Home	Home	Home	54.7% / 26.3% / 19.1%	1.49 – 0.76	U 60.9%	NO 58.8%
Win Probability Morocco 54.7% Draw 26.3% Haiti 19.1% Goals Prediction 1.49 xG Morocco – 0.76 xG Haiti Over 1.5 65.7% Over 2.5 39.1% Over 3.5 19.1% Both Teams Score 41.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Morocco ~5.2 SOT Haiti ~2.3 Corners O/U 9.5 36.0% Corners O/U 10.5 24.8% 🌟 Morocco Ayoub El Kaabi (15G) 🌟 Haiti Wilson Isidor (13G)
	2026-06-24	Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar	Home	Away	Away	Away	27.2% / 36.1% / 36.7%	0.68 – 0.85	U 80.1%	NO 71.7%
Win Probability Bosnia-Herzegovina 27.2% Draw 36.1% Qatar 36.7% Goals Prediction 0.68 xG Bosnia-Herzegovina – 0.85 xG Qatar Over 1.5 45.2% Over 2.5 19.9% Over 3.5 6.9% Both Teams Score 28.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Bosnia-Herzegovina ~1.9 SOT Qatar ~1.0 Corners O/U 9.5 25.9% Corners O/U 10.5 16.5% 🌟 Bosnia-Herzegovina Ermedin Demirovic (15G) 🌟 Qatar Edmílson Junior (8G)
	2026-06-25	Türkiye vs United States	Home	Away	Away	Away	29.0% / 21.6% / 49.3%	1.5 – 2.0	O 67.9%	YES 67.2%
Win Probability Türkiye 29.0% Draw 21.6% United States 49.3% Goals Prediction 1.5 xG Türkiye – 2.0 xG United States Over 1.5 86.4% Over 2.5 67.9% Over 3.5 46.3% Both Teams Score 67.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Türkiye ~5.4 SOT United States ~5.2 Corners O/U 9.5 54.0% Corners O/U 10.5 41.5% 🌟 Türkiye Hakan Çalhanoglu (13G) 🌟 United States Haji Wright (17G)
	2026-06-25	Curaçao vs Ivory Coast	Away	Away	Draw	Away	22.0% / 28.9% / 49.1%	0.76 – 1.29	U 66.3%	NO 61.4%
Win Probability Curaçao 22.0% Draw 28.9% Ivory Coast 49.1% Goals Prediction 0.76 xG Curaçao – 1.29 xG Ivory Coast Over 1.5 60.7% Over 2.5 33.7% Over 3.5 15.2% Both Teams Score 38.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Curaçao ~2.7 SOT Ivory Coast ~4.2 Corners O/U 9.5 33.4% Corners O/U 10.5 22.6% 🌟 Curaçao Juninho Bacuna (5G) 🌟 Ivory Coast Yan Diomande (12G)
	2026-06-25	Ecuador vs Germany	Home	Away	Away	Away	21.5% / 25.3% / 53.2%	0.9 – 1.58	U 54.9%	NO 52.9%
Win Probability Ecuador 21.5% Draw 25.3% Germany 53.2% Goals Prediction 0.9 xG Ecuador – 1.58 xG Germany Over 1.5 70.9% Over 2.5 45.1% Over 3.5 23.8% Both Teams Score 47.1% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Ecuador ~4.2 SOT Germany ~7.2 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Ecuador Jordy Caicedo (8G) 🌟 Germany Deniz Undav (19G)
	2026-06-25	Japan vs Sweden	Draw	Home	Home	Home	43.5% / 26.3% / 30.2%	1.42 – 1.14	U 52.9%	YES 51.6%
Win Probability Japan 43.5% Draw 26.3% Sweden 30.2% Goals Prediction 1.42 xG Japan – 1.14 xG Sweden Over 1.5 72.5% Over 2.5 47.1% Over 3.5 25.5% Both Teams Score 51.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Japan ~5.3 SOT Sweden ~5.0 Corners O/U 9.5 39.9% Corners O/U 10.5 28.2% 🌟 Japan Ayase Ueda (25G) 🌟 Sweden Benjamin Nygren (16G)
	2026-06-25	Tunisia vs Netherlands	Away	Away	Away	Away	25.4% / 26.4% / 48.2%	0.99 – 1.47	U 55.4%	NO 51.6%
Win Probability Tunisia 25.4% Draw 26.4% Netherlands 48.2% Goals Prediction 0.99 xG Tunisia – 1.47 xG Netherlands Over 1.5 70.4% Over 2.5 44.6% Over 3.5 23.4% Both Teams Score 48.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Tunisia ~3.0 SOT Netherlands ~3.8 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 Tunisia Mortadha Ben Ouanes (7G) 🌟 Netherlands Guus Til (14G)
	2026-06-26	Egypt vs Iran	Draw	Away	Draw	Away	33.4% / 33.0% / 33.6%	0.9 – 0.9	U 73.1%	NO 64.8%
Win Probability Egypt 33.4% Draw 33.0% Iran 33.6% Goals Prediction 0.9 xG Egypt – 0.9 xG Iran Over 1.5 53.7% Over 2.5 26.9% Over 3.5 10.9% Both Teams Score 35.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Egypt ~4.0 SOT Iran ~2.5 Corners O/U 9.5 28.3% Corners O/U 10.5 18.4% 🌟 Egypt Mohamed Salah (29G) 🌟 Iran Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh (8G)
	2026-06-26	Uruguay vs Spain	Away	Away	Draw	Away	27.9% / 23.0% / 49.1%	1.31 – 1.8	O 60.1%	YES 60.9%
Win Probability Uruguay 27.9% Draw 23.0% Spain 49.1% Goals Prediction 1.31 xG Uruguay – 1.8 xG Spain Over 1.5 81.7% Over 2.5 60.1% Over 3.5 37.7% Both Teams Score 60.9% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Uruguay ~3.0 SOT Spain ~5.8 Corners O/U 9.5 49.0% Corners O/U 10.5 36.6% 🌟 Uruguay Giorgian de Arrascaeta (18G) 🌟 Spain Ferran Torres (16G)
	2026-06-26	Norway vs France	Away	Away	Draw	Away	36.6% / 23.7% / 39.7%	1.52 – 1.6	O 60.3%	YES 62.4%
Win Probability Norway 36.6% Draw 23.7% France 39.7% Goals Prediction 1.52 xG Norway – 1.6 xG France Over 1.5 81.8% Over 2.5 60.3% Over 3.5 38.0% Both Teams Score 62.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Norway ~3.0 SOT France ~4.3 Corners O/U 9.5 50.3% Corners O/U 10.5 37.8% 🌟 Norway Erling Haaland (36G) 🌟 France Kylian Mbappé (31G)
	2026-06-26	New Zealand vs Belgium	Away	Away	Away	Away	31.4% / 25.3% / 43.3%	1.25 – 1.51	O 52.1%	YES 55.6%
Win Probability New Zealand 31.4% Draw 25.3% Belgium 43.3% Goals Prediction 1.25 xG New Zealand – 1.51 xG Belgium Over 1.5 76.2% Over 2.5 52.1% Over 3.5 29.9% Both Teams Score 55.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT New Zealand ~3.3 SOT Belgium ~6.0 Corners O/U 9.5 43.8% Corners O/U 10.5 31.7% 🌟 New Zealand Chris Wood (20G) 🌟 Belgium Romelu Lukaku (14G)
	2026-06-26	Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia	Draw	Away	Away	Away	26.4% / 29.2% / 44.3%	0.88 – 1.23	U 64.7%	NO 58.6%
Win Probability Cape Verde 26.4% Draw 29.2% Saudi Arabia 44.3% Goals Prediction 0.88 xG Cape Verde – 1.23 xG Saudi Arabia Over 1.5 62.3% Over 2.5 35.3% Over 3.5 16.3% Both Teams Score 41.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Cape Verde ~2.0 SOT Saudi Arabia ~2.3 Corners O/U 9.5 33.4% Corners O/U 10.5 22.6% 🌟 Cape Verde Jovane Cabral (7G) 🌟 Saudi Arabia Feras Al-Brikan (13G)
	2026-06-26	Senegal vs Iraq	Home	Home	Home	Home	49.8% / 27.0% / 23.2%	1.43 – 0.88	U 59.3%	NO 55.5%
Win Probability Senegal 49.8% Draw 27.0% Iraq 23.2% Goals Prediction 1.43 xG Senegal – 0.88 xG Iraq Over 1.5 67.1% Over 2.5 40.7% Over 3.5 20.3% Both Teams Score 44.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Senegal ~6.2 SOT Iraq ~0.7 Corners O/U 9.5 37.3% Corners O/U 10.5 25.9% 🌟 Senegal Nicolas Jackson (14G) 🌟 Iraq Ibrahim Bayesh (5G)
	2026-06-26	Paraguay vs Australia	Draw	Home	Draw	Home	37.0% / 26.5% / 36.4%	1.3 – 1.28	U 52.3%	YES 52.5%
Win Probability Paraguay 37.0% Draw 26.5% Australia 36.4% Goals Prediction 1.3 xG Paraguay – 1.28 xG Australia Over 1.5 72.9% Over 2.5 47.7% Over 3.5 26.0% Both Teams Score 52.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Paraguay ~3.3 SOT Australia ~3.2 Corners O/U 9.5 41.2% Corners O/U 10.5 29.4% 🌟 Paraguay Alex Arce (26G) 🌟 Australia Mohamed Toure (9G)
	2026-06-27	Congo DR vs Uzbekistan	Home	Home	Draw	Home	45.9% / 32.6% / 21.5%	1.08 – 0.64	U 75.2%	NO 68.8%
Win Probability Congo DR 45.9% Draw 32.6% Uzbekistan 21.5% Goals Prediction 1.08 xG Congo DR – 0.64 xG Uzbekistan Over 1.5 51.3% Over 2.5 24.8% Over 3.5 9.6% Both Teams Score 31.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Congo DR ~3.7 SOT Uzbekistan ~3.2 Corners O/U 9.5 27.1% Corners O/U 10.5 17.4% 🌟 Congo DR Simon Banza (21G) 🌟 Uzbekistan Eldor Shomurodov (4G)
	2026-06-27	Jordan vs Argentina	Away	Away	Away	Away	11.7% / 20.2% / 68.1%	0.66 – 1.96	U 51.3%	NO 58.5%
Win Probability Jordan 11.7% Draw 20.2% Argentina 68.1% Goals Prediction 0.66 xG Jordan – 1.96 xG Argentina Over 1.5 73.6% Over 2.5 48.7% Over 3.5 26.8% Both Teams Score 41.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Jordan ~1.5 SOT Argentina ~6.0 Corners O/U 9.5 41.2% Corners O/U 10.5 29.4% 🌟 Jordan Mousa Al-Tamari (6G) 🌟 Argentina Lionel Messi (29G)
	2026-06-27	Algeria vs Austria	Draw	Home	Away	Home	44.7% / 28.4% / 26.9%	1.29 – 0.93	U 61.7%	NO 56.1%
Win Probability Algeria 44.7% Draw 28.4% Austria 26.9% Goals Prediction 1.29 xG Algeria – 0.93 xG Austria Over 1.5 65.0% Over 2.5 38.3% Over 3.5 18.5% Both Teams Score 43.9% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Algeria ~4.1 SOT Austria ~4.9 Corners O/U 9.5 36.0% Corners O/U 10.5 24.8% 🌟 Algeria Houssem Aouar (12G) 🌟 Austria Michael Gregoritsch (9G)
	2026-06-27	Croatia vs Ghana	Home	Home	Home	Home	51.8% / 21.9% / 26.3%	1.96 – 1.34	O 64.1%	YES 63.4%
Win Probability Croatia 51.8% Draw 21.9% Ghana 26.3% Goals Prediction 1.96 xG Croatia – 1.34 xG Ghana Over 1.5 84.1% Over 2.5 64.1% Over 3.5 42.0% Both Teams Score 63.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Croatia ~4.6 SOT Ghana ~2.5 Corners O/U 9.5 51.6% Corners O/U 10.5 39.1% 🌟 Croatia Ante Budimir (21G) 🌟 Ghana Brandon Thomas-Asante (13G)
	2026-06-27	Colombia vs Portugal	Draw	Away	Home	Away	26.2% / 20.7% / 53.1%	1.48 – 2.16	O 70.4%	YES 68.3%
Win Probability Colombia 26.2% Draw 20.7% Portugal 53.1% Goals Prediction 1.48 xG Colombia – 2.16 xG Portugal Over 1.5 87.8% Over 2.5 70.4% Over 3.5 49.3% Both Teams Score 68.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Colombia ~5.2 SOT Portugal ~5.2 Corners O/U 9.5 56.5% Corners O/U 10.5 44.0% 🌟 Colombia Luis Suárez (28G) 🌟 Portugal Cristiano Ronaldo (35G)
	2026-06-27	Panama vs England	Away	Away	Away	Away	13.9% / 18.7% / 67.4%	0.91 – 2.23	O 60.7%	YES 53.3%
Win Probability Panama 13.9% Draw 18.7% England 67.4% Goals Prediction 0.91 xG Panama – 2.23 xG England Over 1.5 82.1% Over 2.5 60.7% Over 3.5 38.4% Both Teams Score 53.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Panama ~3.8 SOT England ~4.2 Corners O/U 9.5 49.0% Corners O/U 10.5 36.6% 🌟 Panama Ismael Díaz (5G) 🌟 England Harry Kane (36G)
	2026-06-28	South Africa vs Canada	Away	Away	Draw	Draw	28.3% / 38.3% / 33.4%	1.1 – 1.24	U 58.5%	NO 52.6%
Win Probability South Africa 28.3% Draw 38.3% Canada 33.4% Goals Prediction 1.1 xG South Africa – 1.24 xG Canada Over 1.5 67.8% Over 2.5 41.5% Over 3.5 20.9% Both Teams Score 47.4% Shots · Corners · Players SOT South Africa ~5.0 SOT Canada ~4.6 Corners O/U 9.5 37.3% Corners O/U 10.5 25.9% 🌟 South Africa Iqraam Rayners (14G) 🌟 Canada Promise David (11G)
	2026-06-29	Germany vs Paraguay	Draw	Home	Home	Home	42.9% / 24.8% / 32.3%	1.55 – 1.31	O 54.5%	YES 57.5%
Win Probability Germany 42.9% Draw 24.8% Paraguay 32.3% Goals Prediction 1.55 xG Germany – 1.31 xG Paraguay Over 1.5 77.9% Over 2.5 54.5% Over 3.5 32.1% Both Teams Score 57.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Germany ~7.2 SOT Paraguay ~3.3 Corners O/U 9.5 45.1% Corners O/U 10.5 32.9% 🌟 Germany Deniz Undav (19G) 🌟 Paraguay Alex Arce (26G)
	2026-06-29	Brazil vs Japan	Home	Home	Home	Home	50.3% / 21.8% / 28.0%	1.98 – 1.44	O 66.4%	YES 65.8%
Win Probability Brazil 50.3% Draw 21.8% Japan 28.0% Goals Prediction 1.98 xG Brazil – 1.44 xG Japan Over 1.5 85.5% Over 2.5 66.4% Over 3.5 44.6% Both Teams Score 65.8% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Brazil ~7.5 SOT Japan ~5.3 Corners O/U 9.5 54.0% Corners O/U 10.5 41.5% 🌟 Brazil Igor Thiago (22G) 🌟 Japan Ayase Ueda (25G)
	2026-06-30	France vs Sweden	Home	Home	Home	Home	50.0% / 25.0% / 25.0%	1.59 – 1.05	U 50.8%	YES 51.7%
Win Probability France 50.0% Draw 25.0% Sweden 25.0% Goals Prediction 1.59 xG France – 1.05 xG Sweden Over 1.5 74.0% Over 2.5 49.2% Over 3.5 27.3% Both Teams Score 51.7% Shots · Corners · Players SOT France ~4.3 SOT Sweden ~5.0 Corners O/U 9.5 41.2% Corners O/U 10.5 29.4% 🌟 France Kylian Mbappé (31G) 🌟 Sweden Benjamin Nygren (16G)
	2026-06-30	Ivory Coast vs Norway	Away	Away	Away	Away	30.8% / 25.0% / 44.3%	1.25 – 1.55	O 53.1%	YES 56.2%
Win Probability Ivory Coast 30.8% Draw 25.0% Norway 44.3% Goals Prediction 1.25 xG Ivory Coast – 1.55 xG Norway Over 1.5 76.9% Over 2.5 53.1% Over 3.5 30.8% Both Teams Score 56.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Ivory Coast ~4.2 SOT Norway ~3.0 Corners O/U 9.5 43.8% Corners O/U 10.5 31.7% 🌟 Ivory Coast Yan Diomande (12G) 🌟 Norway Erling Haaland (36G)
	2026-06-30	Mexico vs Ecuador	Home	Home	Draw	Home	65.2% / 19.7% / 15.1%	2.13 – 0.91	O 58.6%	YES 52.6%
Win Probability Mexico 65.2% Draw 19.7% Ecuador 15.1% Goals Prediction 2.13 xG Mexico – 0.91 xG Ecuador Over 1.5 80.7% Over 2.5 58.6% Over 3.5 36.2% Both Teams Score 52.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Mexico ~5.3 SOT Ecuador ~4.2 Corners O/U 9.5 47.7% Corners O/U 10.5 35.4% 🌟 Mexico Julián Quiñones (33G) 🌟 Ecuador Jordy Caicedo (8G)
	2026-06-30	Netherlands vs Morocco	Draw	Away	Draw	Draw	32.5% / 35.6% / 31.9%	1.4 – 1.56	O 56.8%	YES 59.5%
Win Probability Netherlands 32.5% Draw 35.6% Morocco 31.9% Goals Prediction 1.4 xG Netherlands – 1.56 xG Morocco Over 1.5 79.5% Over 2.5 56.8% Over 3.5 34.4% Both Teams Score 59.5% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Netherlands ~3.8 SOT Morocco ~5.2 Corners O/U 9.5 46.4% Corners O/U 10.5 34.2% 🌟 Netherlands Guus Til (14G) 🌟 Morocco Ayoub El Kaabi (15G)
	2026-07-01	England vs Congo DR	Home	Home	Draw	Home	63.4% / 19.9% / 16.7%	2.14 – 1.01	O 61.0%	YES 56.1%
Win Probability England 63.4% Draw 19.9% Congo DR 16.7% Goals Prediction 2.14 xG England – 1.01 xG Congo DR Over 1.5 82.2% Over 2.5 61.0% Over 3.5 38.6% Both Teams Score 56.1% Shots · Corners · Players SOT England ~4.2 SOT Congo DR ~3.7 Corners O/U 9.5 50.3% Corners O/U 10.5 37.8% 🌟 England Harry Kane (36G) 🌟 Congo DR Simon Banza (21G)
	2026-07-01	Belgium vs Senegal	Home	Home	Away	Home	43.8% / 24.0% / 32.2%	1.64 – 1.38	O 58.1%	YES 60.3%
Win Probability Belgium 43.8% Draw 24.0% Senegal 32.2% Goals Prediction 1.64 xG Belgium – 1.38 xG Senegal Over 1.5 80.4% Over 2.5 58.1% Over 3.5 35.7% Both Teams Score 60.3% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Belgium ~6.0 SOT Senegal ~6.2 Corners O/U 9.5 47.7% Corners O/U 10.5 35.4% 🌟 Belgium Romelu Lukaku (14G) 🌟 Senegal Nicolas Jackson (14G)
	2026-07-01	United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina	Home	Home	Home	Home	65.8% / 21.6% / 12.6%	1.84 – 0.66	U 54.4%	NO 59.4%
Win Probability United States 65.8% Draw 21.6% Bosnia-Herzegovina 12.6% Goals Prediction 1.84 xG United States – 0.66 xG Bosnia-Herzegovina Over 1.5 71.3% Over 2.5 45.6% Over 3.5 24.2% Both Teams Score 40.6% Shots · Corners · Players SOT United States ~5.2 SOT Bosnia-Herzegovina ~1.8 Corners O/U 9.5 38.6% Corners O/U 10.5 27.0% 🌟 United States Haji Wright (17G) 🌟 Bosnia-Herzegovina Ermedin Demirovic (15G)
	2026-07-02	Portugal vs Croatia	Home	Home	Home	Home	42.3% / 19.2% / 38.5%	2.35 – 2.24	O 83.6%	YES 80.8%
Win Probability Portugal 42.3% Draw 19.2% Croatia 38.5% Goals Prediction 2.35 xG Portugal – 2.24 xG Croatia Over 1.5 94.3% Over 2.5 83.6% Over 3.5 67.3% Both Teams Score 80.8% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Portugal ~5.2 SOT Croatia ~4.6 Corners O/U 9.5 69.4% Corners O/U 10.5 58.0% 🌟 Portugal Cristiano Ronaldo (35G) 🌟 Croatia Ante Budimir (21G)
	2026-07-02	Spain vs Austria	Home	Home	Home	Home	55.6% / 23.7% / 20.8%	1.73 – 0.96	O 50.4%	YES 50.8%
Win Probability Spain 55.6% Draw 23.7% Austria 20.8% Goals Prediction 1.73 xG Spain – 0.96 xG Austria Over 1.5 75.0% Over 2.5 50.4% Over 3.5 28.4% Both Teams Score 50.8% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Spain ~5.8 SOT Austria ~4.9 Corners O/U 9.5 42.5% Corners O/U 10.5 30.5% 🌟 Spain Ferran Torres (16G) 🌟 Austria Michael Gregoritsch (9G)
	2026-07-03	Switzerland vs Algeria	Home	Away	Home	Away	33.4% / 26.8% / 39.8%	1.19 – 1.33	U 53.9%	YES 51.2%
Win Probability Switzerland 33.4% Draw 26.8% Algeria 39.8% Goals Prediction 1.19 xG Switzerland – 1.33 xG Algeria Over 1.5 71.7% Over 2.5 46.1% Over 3.5 24.7% Both Teams Score 51.2% Shots · Corners · Players SOT Switzerland ~4.2 SOT Algeria ~4.1 Corners O/U 9.5 39.9% Corners O/U 10.5 28.2% 🌟 Switzerland Christian Fassnacht (11G) 🌟 Algeria Houssem Aouar (12G)

Overall Accuracy Summary

Combined (Poisson + XGBoost) 64.9%

Best model — calibrated with 5-yr player stats

Poisson (Statistical xG) 66.7%

Physics-based expected-goals model

XGBoost (Machine Learning) 54.4%

Trained on 312 WC matches + player features

Baseline (Always Home Win) 48.3%

Naïve benchmark — always picks home side

+16.6%

vs Baseline

Above Avg

vs Industry 55–65%

57 / 57

Matches evaluated

Combined correctly predicted 37 out of 57 matches · Poisson: 38 · XGBoost: 31

Model Evaluation — Test Set